Al-Quds al-‘Arabi (in Arabic) – Editorial: “Al-Qa’ida in Somalia”

The Ethiopian government and its allies in Washington are celebrating its military victory in Somalia, where it defeated Islamic Courts fighters and seized the capital Mogadishu, but this celebration will be short lived because the courts are determined to resist and expel the Ethiopian aggression, as stated by its spokesmen.

News agencies reported yesterday the first hand-grenade attack on Ethiopian forces in the Somali capital, less than a week after the Islamic Courts militias were driven out of the city.  This is a record time by all standards when considering the sheer magnitude of the defeat these militias suffered at the hands of the Ethiopian forces – it took the Afghan Taliban Movement more than three years to regroup and resume its operations against the NATO forces that had toppled its regime in a devastating war following the events of 11 September 2001. 

The Islamic Courts managed to change their tactics by going under ground and waging a bloody guerilla war on the Ethiopian forces and the [Somali transitional] government forces allied with them, but this war could prove costly for both sides.  Ethiopia suffered for a long time from the guerilla wars waged by the Eritrean resistance in the 1970s and 1980s and was eventually forced to withdraw from Eritrea for good.  The United States might extend financial and military support to the Ethiopian Government as it battles the Islamic militias on its behalf, but this support will not guarantee an ultimate victory and could end up rattling the internal Ethiopian front. 

The US Administration has clearly learned from its Afghan experience and does not wish to repeat the mistake it made when it overlooked the Taliban Movement’s swift rise to power.  It hence advised Ethiopia to play a role similar to the one Pakistan played and to fight in Somalia on its behalf, but this does not necessarily mean that US goals will be achieved because it is now easier for Al-Qa’ida to get involved in Somalia following this Ethiopian interference that most Islamists view as a crusader invasion of Muslim Somalia, according to their literature and statements as posted on the internet.

One finds it difficult to declare that the Islamic militias will defeat Ethiopia, but one can say that they will succeed in rattling the stability of the American project in Somalia the way their counterparts did in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The Horn of Africa has entered a new phase of instability that could reflect negatively on most of its neighboring countries, especially Sudan Egypt, Eritrea, and Yemen, and it is not unlikely that this phase will stretch on for decades to come. 

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