Ogaden Online report – “Ethiopia: Government Reportedly Plans ‘Full-Scale Invasion of Somalia“

While the rest of the world cautiously welcomed the defeat of warlords in Mogadishu, Ethiopia was the first country to comment negatively on the new Somali development. Instead of adopting a wait-and-see approach to see what this development means to the rest of Horn of Africa region, Ethiopia immediately claimed that a threat was developing at its borders. Unless Ethiopia’s border with the Somali Republic moved overnight, Mogadishu is further away from the Ethiopian border.

This immediate claim of a developing threat makes no sense to the sage mind. It is hard for anyone to fathom how a motley militia which has not even completed taking over all of Mogadishu can immediately threaten a neighboring country regardless of whether this country happens to be an archenemy of the Somali Republic.

The actions the current head of the regime in Addis Ababa undertook following pronouncements of a real ‘threat’ at the border are indicative of a plan that was put in place long before the motley Islamic militias have taken over Mogadishu. This plan called for a full-scale invasion of Somalia at the most opportune time by Tigrayan-led militias in the name of Ethiopian military.

This plan also advocated the use of deflective tactics to put out uncorroborated stories of Eritrean aid to the Islamic militias. The fact that Ethiopian militias have not only massed on the Somali border but some have already crossed deep into Somali territory proves the point that Meles Zenawi is using the Islamic courts victory as an excuse to settle scores with the once proud but now downtrodden Somali nation.

It is important to answer the question what does Ethiopia gain from involving itself and its meager military resources in Somalia. For one, Zenawi gets a ready-made solution to deflect attention away from his military failures in both Ogaden and at the Eritrean border towns which he is forced to give up as per the border commission judgments in favor of Eritrea. Two, he wraps himself on the Ethiopian flag and its colonial history by claiming to be restoring Ethiopia’s lost military might in the horn of Africa.

It is questionable whether the nation will follow him blindly, but at least he busies the military and his own motley militia into a war, since in time of war people have other things to occupy their minds rather than psychoanalyze the current, derelict state of Ethiopian affairs. Three, he hopes to use the Somali military invasion to immediately declare state of emergency in order to further weaken any internal popular apprising against his dying regime. It is incumbent on the world community not to fall for Ethiopian threats of convenience.

The world community should not only warn Ethiopia against invading Somalia but also it must take concrete steps in making sure that Zenawi and his minions in Addis Ababa are severely penalized for involving Ethiopia in the affairs of the Somali republic. The world community should not allow Zenawi to transport, in the name of fighting terror, his own problems to the Somali Republic. Zenawi must be forced to resolve the longstanding Ogaden problem rather than talk of Ethiopian threats of convenience.

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