Asharq Al-Awsat (in Arabic) – Report by Michel Abu-Najm: “Three Scenarios for the Military Operations Expected in Somalia”
[FBIS Translated Text] Paris — As the US campaign in Afghanistan nears its end after the fall of the Taliban regime and the collapse of the Al-Qa’ida troops in Tora Bora, a well-informed Western diplomatic source in Paris revealed that Washington’s second target in its war on terrorism is Somalia. The source told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that a US strike in northern Somalia is now “inevitable” and is expected to take place “within the next few days or weeks.”
The expected US military operation is aimed primarily at the “Somali Islamic Union” organization which it accuses of being linked to Al-Qa’ida, and also at military bases belonging to the latter.
The Western diplomatic source revealed that Washington told its European allies that it sees no need for securing a new Security Council resolution that would give it the green light to carry out military operations outside Afghanistan, and specifically in Somalia. Washington’s argument is that these operations are a continuation of the strike against the Al-Qa’ida organization and that, from the viewpoint of international law, Security Council Resolution 1368 which was issued in the wake of the September 11 events is “sufficient” to cover the second phase of the war on terrorism.
In addition to the “field” preparations that Washington is making in Somalia — such as sending CIA teams and carrying out reconnaissance flights over Somalia, in addition to establishing communications channels with some Somali forces such as the Rahanwein Resistance Army and Aidid’s group — the Western source believes that Washington “has practically taken the first step in the Security Council” wit regard to carrying out military operations in Somalia. This step, according to the source, involves the Council’s special committee approving the fourth US list of organizations believed by Washington to be terrorist organizations. This list basically comprises Somali organizations, associations, and bodies. The source said that the committee’s unanimous approval of the fourth list means that the Security Council has already acknowledged the existence of a link between these organizations and associations, and Al-Qa’ida — a matter which opens the door to US military action.
And if some states — including France — insist on sending a warning to the Somali Government which includes a series of special demands with regard to striking the Islamic Union and others, Washington has already countered this argument by saying that no responsible central government in Somalia can deal with it. Somali Foreign Minister Isma’il Mahmud Hurreh earlier accepted to cooperate with Washington. However, the US Administration has opened communication channels with several Somali quarters, which means that it does not attach a great deal of importance to the Mogadishu government headed by Hasan Abshir Farah.
As for the scenarios of the upcoming military operations in Somalia, the Western source believes that there are three main possibilities: First, the Afghan example — this would mean creating something similar to the Afghan “northern alliance,” supporting and arming local forces, and accompanying the ground operations with a concentrated air bombardment. The second scenario is based on enlisting the help of Ethiopian forces to carry out military operations on behalf of the Marines. The third scenario gives the central role to US forces, both on the ground and in the air, as this would provide Washington with an opportunity to avenge the humiliation it suffered in Somalia in 1993 at the hands of Mohammad Farah Aidid’s group.
In this case, Washington will be able to ask for the help of its Western allies and particularly Britain, France, and Italy which have several naval units in the region and land bases close to the theater of operations in Somalia.
The Somali History Archive 