Al-Majallah report by ‘Umar al-Ansari

Mogadishu — What was General Aidid’s intention in invading Baidoa, particularly after forming his new fictitious government of 65 ministers and deputy ministers? Why did Aidid choose this time to invade Baidoa? One of the most important objectives of Aidid’s invasion of Baidoa was to seize its agricultural crop. His move came at a time when he announced his government’s budget of $35 million. There was no doubt that Baidoa had all the attractions to make “His Excellency the General” decide to invade it.

His opponents, including his worst enemies, Colonel Hassanow Mohamed Nur, Abdallah Abdi, and Abdi Musa Miyo, leader of the Somali Democratic Movement live there, and he wants to take out his revenge on them. Foreigners also live in Baidoa, and they are an important card, which Aidid likes to exploit and harass. As the letters Aidid receives from some organizations that support him show, he undoubtedly receives aid in the name of the Somali people, but he uses this money to feed his war machine. One of these organizations is the U.S.H.C.M. [abbreviation in English], which send him containers valued at millions of dollars supposedly as aid for the educational, health, and other sectors. Aidid has done nothing to help these sectors. The Somali people still depend on the help of some Islamic organizations. Aidid exploits these organizations which offer him aid as the president of the Somali people! Some people believe that the invasion of Baidoa is the start of Aidid’s threatened military solution. However, this is unlikely for several reasons.

The most important reason is the reduction in Aidid’s military strength. Many Somali youths have turned away from the battlefront. Neither can he finance such a war, particularly after his primary financial supporter, Osman Atto, has abandoned him. Some Somalis say that if Aidid had any power, he would have captured Atto’s headquarters, which is about 300 meters from him. In this respect, it seems that the general has been content in exchanging insults with his adversary through their private radio stations. Aidid’s invasion of Baidoa comes at a time when the Somali people were trying to catch their breath following a destructive five-year war. His move has caused much pessimism and anger among the Somalis, including Aidid’s supporters. The general, however, is betting that some states, including Sudan, Iraq, Ethiopia, and Eritrea will recognize his government. Still, some Somalis do not take his statements seriously, because he is weak.

His weakness became more evident after Osman Atto recently made an alliance with Ali Mahdi. As for the general’s government, which he wants to impose on the people, most experts inside and outside Somalia think that it will fail. Osman Adam, a member of the National Alliance for Salvation in Somalia, affirms that the government, which only represents about 10 percent of the people, cannot succeed. This government is not what the Somali people have dreamed about. Aidid is using some destroyed government buildings as offices for his government’s administration. The only equipment one can see are the automatic weapons his soldiers carry outside the destroyed buildings. One can only meet his excellency the general after passing through several channels, like trying to meet any head of state in the world. A journalist cannot carry out his work in the west bank, which is under Aidid’s control, unless he secures a permit for $20. Anyone violating this rule can face the fate of Journalist Musa Ahmed, a BBC correspondent jailed on charges of harming the state!

As for the government’s budget, which has been beefed up with the occupation of Baidoa, it is based on a weapon’s tax, which Aidid imposed on various organizations that use weapons to protect their members. The general has imposed a $20 monthly fee for every Kalashnikov rifle. He also has taken control of the port where he is planning to impose taxes on exports and imports. This is a profitable business, particularly regarding imports, such as fuel and Qat or exports, such as bananas. The general has promised to carry out development projects, such as schools, hospitals, and electricity, which are almost impossible to achieve. While Aidid has created an exciting atmosphere around him, life has begun returning to normal in Mogadishu. People are carrying out their businesses. Many young people have begun looking for work in agriculture or cattle breeding, away from fighting.

Outside Mogadishu, one can see several young people walking behind cattle and camel herds. A visitor to Mogadishu will also notice the return to normal life in restaurants and shops. A plate of pasta with fish is only $1. Many young people also spend time in movie theaters, which are advertised by loudspeakers mounted on cars, and in Qat sessions and domino games on several streets. It is worth mentioning that at least 20 small aircraft loaded with Qat arrive from Kenya and Ethiopia weekly. The daily consumption of Qat in Mogadishu alone is estimated at $1 million. This is a realistic figure, as Dr. Ali Shaykh Abukar, a Somali academician and deputy chairman of the Somali Reconciliation Council, says. Commercial life has also begun returning to normal, despite some merchants’ fears.

Trade is witnessing astonishing development, particularly following the launching of the Barakah Trade Company by Somali Businessman Ahmed Jim’aleh. This company has introduced satellite communications. It is also involved in banking, postal, and general trade activity. This company is a distributor of cellular phones, which went into service in Somalia before some other Arab countries. A cellular phone costs $400. Thanks to this company’s banking institution, Somalis have begun receiving money transfers from their relatives abroad. They can also now receive mail.

Mohamed Farah Aidid and Ali Mahdi Mohamed enjoy much popularity among the Somalis. Neutral observers say that Ali Mahdi Mohamed enjoyed legitimacy at the beginning when he was supported by the Djibouti conference in 1991. Although Aidid is hated by his opponents as the leading warlord in Somalia, he is also admired by many Somalis as the person who opposed and fought the U.S. forces, which sought to “occupy” Somalia in the fifth occupation attempt in the past 500 years. The Somalis support any leader who stands against what they consider as occupation. This was one of the important points Aidid exploited during the deployment of the UN forces in Mogadishu, which hates the arrival of foreigners, whether for good or bad. Therefore, to them, he is more deserving of the presidency than Ali Mahdi Mohmed, who was lenient in dealing with the West. They think that if Ali Mahdi Mohmed had his way, he would sell them to the New World Order, led by the United States. I do not know how true this is. I report it as I heard it from them.

However, we must not forget that the Somalis are a Muslim Arab people. They are now trying to dress their wounds and regain their stability under an honest leader who will apply the Islamic law [shari’ah]. They were deprived of this under the late President Siad Barre, who nurtured Communism. But they will have the solution under leader Ali Mahdi, who promised to apply the Islamic shari’ah when he assumes full control of the country. Life in the northern region, governed by Ali Mahdi, where Islamic shari’ah is being applied, is better than in the tense south. This is something that many people think will work in favor of Ali Mahdi. The application of the shari’ah promised by Mahdi is an important issue to the Somali people. Therefore, when Aidid became aware of its effect on the Somali people, he also began talking about it. However, there were no indications of this when he formed his new 31-member government. Ali Mahdi has threatened to form a government, if Aidid forms one. Nevertheless, he did not do that when Aidid announced the formation of his government.